Much has been made of the growth in domestic visitors to Bali in recent years, despite the impact of the pandemic. But just how important has the number of domestic visitors been to the occupancy and average daily rate (ADR) of Bali's hotels and resorts over the period 2018-2021? Based on our detailed analysis we find that the  umber of domestic visitors was a statistically significant predictor of occupancy for hotels and resorts in all the major tourist centers except Sanur and Ubud as illustrated in the following table. However, when it came to ADR, the number of domestic visitors was only significant in the case of hotels in the Kuta & South Kuta Beach, Tuban areas.

Not unsurprising, the number of foreign visitors was a statistically significant predictor of occupancy and ADR for all the major tourist centers. The shape of the current recovery path is therefore of vital interest to hotel owners and operators.

Statistical Significance of Foreign & Domestic Visitors on Occupancy & ADR for Bali's Major Hotel & Resort Markets 2018-2021

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The "U" shaped recovery path for international visitors is taking shape with foreign visitors growing to 276,659 in August, up 12.2% on July 2022. Australia accounted for 29% of visitors, followed by India, 7%, UK 7%, and France 7%.

Growth in International Visitors to Bali Jan 2009 - Aug 2022

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The monthly arrival figure for foreign visitors is similar to those in late 2013 and early 2014, eight years ago.

Bali's "U" or "V" shaped recovery path for domestic tourists is also emerging with domestic visitors up 113% YTD August 2022 compared to YTD August 2021.  Accounting for about 40% and 93% of guest nights in star-rated hotels in 2020 and 2021 respectively, we expect the domestic market to increase its share of guest nights over the next few years to 30-40%, up from the long-term average of 26% for the period 2004-2019. The monthly arrival figure for domestic guests is similar to many months during the period 2013-2019.

Growth in Domestic Visitors to Bali Jan 2009 - Aug 2022

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While the domestic market is likely to recover more quickly than the international market, foreign visitors will remain the lifeblood of star-rated hotels in Bali for the foreseeable future. The number of foreign visitors is a statistically significant predictor of occupancy and ADR for all the major tourist centers in Bali. The number of domestic visitors is a statistically significant predictor of occupancy for all centers in Bali, except for Sanur and Ubud, and is a statistically significant predictor of ADR in only one of the major tourist centers in Balli, Kuta & South Kuta Beach, Tuban.