Forecasting the future supply of hotel rooms in Bali using econometric models can be just as problematic as forecasting room demand. We normally add known additions to supply over the first two years of the forecast period to our model. Beyond this period, growth in room supply is modeled as a function of the growth in room supply in previous years, past real ADR and room occupancy lagged anywhere between 1 and 4 years.

How many hotels and resorts have opened in the past 12 months and how many are currently under construction? How many properties are in the final planning stage and when are they slated to open? The future supply outlook is further challenged by the impact of the pandemic. Just how many properties were closed for good and how many were closed temporarily as a result of the pandemic is difficult to estimate?

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According to BPS Indonesia, the number of 5-star hotels operating in Bali fell from 78 in 2019 to 62 in 2020 and bounced back to 78 in 2021. At the same time, the number of 5-star hotel rooms fell 60% in 2020 due to closures from 18,700 in 2019 to 7,550 in 2020. They numbered 15,069 in 2021, up 100% on 2020.

The number of 4-star hotels operating in Bali fell from 144 in 2019 to 116 in 2020 and bounced back to 134 in 2021. The number of 4-star hotel rooms fell 46% in 2020 due to closures from 19,168 in 2019 to 10,411 in 2020. They numbered 18,191 in 2021, up 75% on 2020.